Air cargo market seen nearly doubling to $315.9 billion by 2035

Market Research Future projects the global air cargo market will rise from $171.4 billion in 2025 to $315.9 billion by 2035, driven by cross-border e-commerce, pharma cold chain demand and digital freight tools. Asia-Pacific remains the largest regional market, while capacity, fuel and sustainability rules reshape how cargo moves worldwide.

Why it matters: - Air cargo is shifting from a backup transport mode to core infrastructure for e-commerce, pharmaceuticals and time-sensitive trade. - The market's projected growth to $315.90 billion by 2035 points to a lasting change in global logistics demand. - Shippers now need faster delivery, tighter temperature control and more digital booking tools.

What happened: - Market Research Future said the global air cargo market was worth $171.40 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach $315.90 billion by 2035. - The forecast implies a 6.30% compound annual growth rate through the period. - The report said cross-border e-commerce volumes doubled between 2019 and 2024. - The report said more than 15% of temperature-sensitive pharmaceutical shipments now move by air. - Asia-Pacific held 43.50% of the market, led by China's export manufacturing corridors and India's digital commerce growth.

The details: - Global cross-border e-commerce reached $1.6 trillion in 2024. - Air-shipped parcels made up more than 40% of international direct-to-consumer fulfillment. - Temu, Shein and AliExpress generated an estimated 7,000-plus daily charter-equivalent cargo flights on the transpacific corridor in 2024. - Cross-border parcel transit expectations have dropped to under seven days. - Forwarders are using bonded warehouses near major gateway airports to pre-position inventory. - The E-Commerce & Retail segment is the fastest-growing end user. - Amazon Air expanded to more than 110 aircraft by 2025. - Amazon opened a dedicated air cargo hub at San Bernardino International Airport, increasing U.S. West Coast e-commerce throughput capacity by 30%. - Temperature-sensitive cargo is the fastest-growing premium area in air cargo. - The global biologics pipeline surpassed 8,500 active candidates in 2024. - GDP-compliant air corridors between the U.S. and EU and production hubs in Ireland, Singapore and India grew 35% since 2020. - Emirates SkyCargo and Lufthansa Cargo have invested more than $600 million in pharma-certified hub infrastructure. - Special Cargo is growing at a 5.10% CAGR, helped by pharma cold chain needs and lithium-battery shipment protocols. - Brussels Airport handles more than 100,000 temperature-controlled shipments a year. - Passenger-to-freighter conversions hit a record 92 aircraft deliveries in 2024. - The 737-800BCF and A330-300P2F are among the platforms added to offset belly-hold capacity shortages. - Freighter aircraft account for 54.30% of the market by value. - Belly cargo is recovering as passenger services return, adding cheaper capacity on dense routes. - IATA is targeting 100% e-AWB adoption by the end of 2025. - Airlines and forwarders committed more than $2.3 billion to digital infrastructure upgrades from 2022 to 2024. - Freightos, cargo.one and WebCargo are moving from booking tools to broader ecosystem platforms. - By 2030, digital intermediation may account for 15% to 20% of bookings. - AI-powered yield management could lift airline cargo revenue per available tonne-kilometer by 8% to 12% by 2030. - ICAO's CORSIA Phase 2 and the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation regulation are adding new compliance costs. - ReFuelEU Aviation requires 6% SAF blending by 2030. - In 2024, SAF premiums averaged three to four times the cost of conventional jet fuel. - Those premiums added 3% to 8% to base freight rates depending on route and blending level. - DHL's GoGreen Plus and Lufthansa Cargo's Sustainable Choice have attracted more than 200 corporate clients. - Those clients are paying 8% to 15% surcharges for verified emission reductions. - SAF production is projected to reach 17.5 billion liters by 2030, up from about 1.5 billion liters in 2024. - Green premium revenue could account for 10% to 15% of total air freight revenue by 2035.

Between the lines: - The report suggests e-commerce and pharma are not cyclical boosts. They are resetting the floor for air cargo demand. - The balance between freighter aircraft and belly-hold space is becoming a pricing and capacity strategy, not just an operational issue. - Digital booking and data-sharing tools are becoming a competitive requirement rather than a nice-to-have. - Sustainability rules are likely to raise costs, but they are also creating premium products for shippers willing to pay for verified emissions cuts. - Asia-Pacific's lead reflects both manufacturing strength and the rapid scale-up of consumer shipping demand.

What's next: - Europe, North America and Asia-Pacific will keep expanding capacity, but airport slots and infrastructure limits may slow growth at major hubs. - China-Europe rail and faster ocean services will keep pressuring lower-value air freight. - Drone cargo, autonomous ground handling and cargo-first airports in markets such as Rwanda, Saudi Arabia and India could reshape short-haul and regional logistics. - Noida International Airport is scheduled for Phase 1 operations by 2027 with dedicated cargo terminals designed to process 2 million tonnes annually. - Consolidation is likely to continue after DSV's €14.3 billion acquisition of DB Schenker in 2024.

The bottom line: - Air cargo is becoming a higher-tech, higher-value logistics market shaped by e-commerce scale, pharma precision and decarbonization costs.